Estimating the economic impact of interpersonal violence in Mexico in 2021: projecting three hypothetical scenarios for 2030 / Estimación del impacto económico de la violencia interpersonal en México en el 2021: proyección de tres escenarios hipotéticos para el 2030 / Estimativa do impacto econômico da violência interpessoal no México em 2021: projeção de três cenários hipotéticos para 2030

ABSTRACT Objective. To calculate the economic impact of violence across Mexico in 2021 and project costs for 2021-2030. Methods. Incidence data was obtained from the Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System, (SESNSP), National Population Council (CONAPO), National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), and the National Survey of Victimization and Perception of Public Safety (ENVIPE). Our model incorporates incidence estimates of the costs of events associated with violence (e.g., homicides, hospitalizations, rapes, extortions, robbery, etc). Results. The economic impact of crime and violence in Mexico for the year 2021 has been estimated at about $192 billion US dollars, which corresponds to 14.6% of the national GDP. By reducing violence 50% by 2030, we estimate savings of at least US$110 billion dollars. This represents a saving of US$1 376 372 for each company and more than US$66 771 for each Mexican. Conclusion. Violence and homicides have become one of the most pressing public health and economic concerns for their effect on health, development, and economic growth. Due to low cost and high impact, prevention is the most efficient way to respond to crime and violence while also being an essential component of sustainable strategies aimed at improving citizen security.

RESUMEN Objetivo. Calcular el impacto económico de la violencia en el 2021 en todo México y proyectar sus costos para el período 2021-2030. Métodos. Los datos de incidencia se obtuvieron del Secretariado Ejecutivo del Sistema Nacional de Seguridad Pública (SESNSP), el Consejo Nacional de Población (CONAPO), el Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI), y la Encuesta Nacional de Victimización y Percepción sobre Seguridad Pública (ENVIPE). Nuestro modelo incorpora estimaciones de la incidencia de los costos de los eventos asociados a la violencia (por ejemplo, homicidios, hospitalizaciones, violaciones, extorsiones, robos, etc.) Resultados. Se ha estimado que el impacto económico del delito y la violencia en México para el año 2021 es de alrededor de US$ 192 000 millones de dólares estadounidenses, lo que corresponde al 14,6% del PIB nacional. Estimamos que una reducción del 50% de la violencia para el 2030 supondría un ahorro de al menos US$110 000 millones. Esto representa un ahorro de US$1 376 372 para cada empresa y de más de US$66 771 para cada mexicano. Conclusión. La violencia y los homicidios se han convertido en una de las preocupaciones económicas y de salud pública más apremiantes por su efecto sobre la salud, el desarrollo y el crecimiento económico. Debido a su bajo costo y alto impacto, la prevención es la forma más eficiente de responder al delito y la violencia, al tiempo que es un componente esencial de las estrategias sostenibles dirigidas a mejorar la seguridad ciudadana.

RESUMO Objetivo. Estimar o impacto econômico da violência no México em 2021 e fazer a projeção de custos para o período 2021-2030. Métodos. Os dados de incidência da violência no país foram obtidos da Secretaria Executiva do Sistema Nacional de Segurança Pública (SESNSP), do Conselho Nacional de População (CONAPO), do Instituto Nacional de Estatística e Geografia (INEGI) e da Pesquisa Nacional de Vitimização e Percepção de Segurança Pública (ENVIPE). O modelo incorpora estimativas de incidência de custos de eventos associados à violência (como homicídios, internações hospitalares, estupros, extorsões e roubos). Resultados. O impacto econômico da criminalidade e da violência no México foi estimado em torno de US$192 bilhões em 2021, o que equivale a 14,6% do produto interno bruto (PIB) nacional. Estima-se que reduzir a violência em 50% até 2030 pode resultar em uma economia de US$ 110 bilhões ou mais, o que representa uma redução de gastos de US$1 376 372 para cada empresa e de mais de US$66 771 para cada cidadão do México. Conclusão. A violência e os homicídios são um dos problemas econômicos e de saúde pública mais prementes por suas consequências à saúde, ao desenvolvimento e ao crescimento econômico do país. Devido ao seu baixo custo e alto impacto, a prevenção é a forma mais eficiente de combater a criminalidade e a violência, além de ser um componente essencial de qualquer estratégia sustentável para aumentar a segurança da população.

La necesaria formación en competencia cultural / The necessary training in cultural competence

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The consequences of Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act for police arrests.

BACKGROUND & METHODS: National protests in the summer of 2020 drew attention to the significant presence of police in marginalized communities. Recent social movements have called for substantial police reforms, including "defunding the police," a phrase originating from a larger, historical abolition movement advocating that public investments be redirected away from the criminal justice system and into social services and health care. Although research has demonstrated the expansive role of police to respond a broad range of social problems and health emergencies, existing research has yet to fully explore the capacity for health insurance policy to influence rates of arrest in the population. To fill this gap, we examine the potential effect of Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on arrests in 3,035 U.S. counties. We compare county-level arrests using FBI Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program Data before and after Medicaid expansion in 2014-2016, relative to counties in non-expansion states. We use difference-in-differences (DID) models to estimate the change in arrests following Medicaid expansion for overall arrests, and violent, drug, and low-level arrests. RESULTS: Police arrests significantly declined following the expansion of Medicaid under the ACA. Medicaid expansion produced a 20-32% negative difference in overall arrests rates in the first three years. We observe the largest negative differences for drug arrests: we find a 25-41% negative difference in drug arrests in the three years following Medicaid expansion, compared to non-expansion counties. We observe a 19-29% negative difference in arrests for violence in the three years after Medicaid expansion, and a decrease in low-level arrests between 24-28% in expansion counties compared to non-expansion counties. Our main results for drug arrests are robust to multiple sensitivity analyses, including a state-level model. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence in this paper suggests that expanded Medicaid insurance reduced police arrests, particularly drug-related arrests. Combined with research showing the harmful health consequences of chronic policing in disadvantaged communities, greater insurance coverage creates new avenues for individuals to seek care, receive treatment, and avoid criminalization. As police reform is high on the agenda at the local, state, and federal level, our paper supports the perspective that broad health policy reforms can meaningfully reduce contact with the criminal justice system under historic conditions of mass criminalization.

Population genetic attributes of common leopard (Panthera pardus fusca) from Uttarkashi, Western Himalayas.

BACKGROUND: The common leopard (Panthera pardus fusca), which persists in most of its historic range, is experiencing steady population decline due to habitat loss, anthrophonic disturbances, illegal poaching for their body parts, and retaliatory killings in response to the leopard-human conflicts. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analysed 143 scats samples and identified 32 unique leopards following a selected panel of seven loci with cumulative PID sibs 5.30E-04. We observed moderate genetic diversity at nuclear (Ho = 0.600 ± 0.06) and mitochondrial markers (Hd = 0.569 ± 0.009; π = 0.001 ± 0.0002) and found sub-structuring in the leopard population at Uttarkashi, Western Himalayas. CONCLUSIONS: The present study exhibits the utility of non-invasive genetics in monitoring the leopard population and paves the path to investigate population genetic parameters in further studies.

Envolvimento com o crime: principais fatores de risco e modelos teórico-explicativos / Involvement in crime: principal risk factors and some theoretical and explanatory models / Implicación con el crimen: principales factores de riesgo y algunos modelos teórico-explicativos

A criminalidade figura entre as maiores preocupações da sociedade contemporânea, que tem ficado cada vez mais apreensiva com a crescente insegurança que a circunda. Em sintonia com essa inquietação social, pesquisadores de diferentes áreas do conhecimento têm diligenciado no sentido de lançar luz sobre as causas da delinquência. O presente trabalho teórico elucida e discute alguns dos principais fenômenos que têm sido apontados pela literatura como fatores de risco para o envolvimento de indivíduos com o crime, nas esferas microssocial, macrossocial e psíquica, bem como alguns dentre os mais aceitos modelos teórico-explicativos desse fenômeno. O artigo conclui sinalizando para a multideterminação do envolvimento criminal, subjacente ao qual há uma constelação de fatores que atuam em rede e interagem dinamicamente entre si, arranjando-se de forma personalizada e singular em cada trajetória infracional. A compreensão desses fatores insinua-se como um importante passo na direção do planejamento e da implementação de estratégias sociais mais eficazes de prevenção e enfrentamento à criminalidade.(AU)

Criminality is one of the main concerns of contemporary society, which has become increasingly apprehensive about the growing climate of insecurity arising from it. In line with this social anxiety, researchers from different knowledge areas have endeavored to shed light on the causes of delinquency. This theoretical work elucidates and discusses some of the principal phenomena described in the literature as risk factors for an individual's involvement in crime, in the micro-social, macro-social and psychological spheres, as well as some from the most accepted theoretical and explanatory models for this phenomenon. The paper concludes by pointing out the multi-determinants of criminal involvement, underlying which is a constellation of factors that operate and interact dynamically in conjunction with one another, forming a personalized and singular pathway for each offender trajectory. Understanding these factors is an important step towards planning and implementing more effective social strategies for preventing and combating crime.(AU)

La criminalidad figura entre las mayores preocupaciones de la sociedad contemporánea, que ha quedado cada vez más preocupada por el creciente clima de inseguridad que la rodea. En sintonía con esa inquietud social, investigadores de distintas áreas del conocimiento se han esforzado, en el sentido de lanzar luces sobre las causas de la delincuencia. El presente trabajo teórico elucida y discute algunos de los principales fenómenos que han sido apuntados por la literatura como factores de riesgo para la implicación de individuos con el crimen, en las esferas micro-social, macro-social y psíquica, así como algunos de los más aceptados modelos teórico-explicativos de ese fenómeno. El artículo concluye señalando la multi-determinación de la implicación criminal, subyacente al cual hay una constelación de factores que actúan en red e interactúan dinámicamente entre sí, disponiéndose de forma personalizada y singular en cada trayectoria infraccional. La comprensión de estos factores implica un paso importante hacia la planificación y aplicación de estrategias sociales más eficaces de prevención y enfrentamiento a la criminalidad.(AU)

A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime.

The stay-at-home restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 led to unparalleled sudden change in daily life, but it is unclear how they affected urban crime globally. We collected data on daily counts of crime in 27 cities across 23 countries in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. We conducted interrupted time series analyses to assess the impact of stay-at-home restrictions on different types of crime in each city. Our findings show that the stay-at-home policies were associated with a considerable drop in urban crime, but with substantial variation across cities and types of crime. Meta-regression results showed that more stringent restrictions over movement in public space were predictive of larger declines in crime.

The cumulative risk of jail incarceration.

Research on incarceration has focused on prisons, but jail detention is far more common than imprisonment. Jails are local institutions that detain people before trial or incarcerate them for short sentences for low-level offenses. Research from the 1970s and 1980s viewed jails as "managing the rabble," a small and deeply disadvantaged segment of urban populations that struggled with problems of addiction, mental illness, and homelessness. The 1990s and 2000s marked a period of mass criminalization in which new styles of policing and court processing produced large numbers of criminal cases for minor crimes, concentrated in low-income communities of color. In a period of widespread criminal justice contact for minor offenses, how common is jail incarceration for minority men, particularly in poor neighborhoods? We estimate cumulative risks of jail incarceration with an administrative data file that records all jail admissions and discharges in New York City from 2008 to 2017. Although New York has a low jail incarceration rate, we find that 26.8% of Black men and 16.2% of Latino men, in contrast to only 3% of White men, in New York have been jailed by age 38 y. We also find evidence of high rates of repeated incarceration among Black men and high incarceration risks in high-poverty neighborhoods. Despite the jail's great reach in New York, we also find that the incarcerated population declined in the study period, producing a large reduction in the prevalence of jail incarceration for Black and Latino men.

The heartbeat of the city.

Human activity is organised around daily and weekly cycles, which should, in turn, dominate all types of social interactions, such as transactions, communications, gatherings and so on. Yet, despite their strategic importance for policing and security, cyclical weekly patterns in crime and road incidents have been unexplored at the city and neighbourhood level. Here we construct a novel method to capture the weekly trace, or "heartbeat" of events and use geotagged data capturing the time and location of more than 200,000 violent crimes and nearly one million crashes in Mexico City. On aggregate, our findings show that the heartbeats of crime and crashes follow a similar pattern. We observe valleys during the night and peaks in the evening, where the intensity during a peak is 7.5 times the intensity of valleys in terms of crime and 12.3 times in terms of road accidents. Although distinct types of events, crimes and crashes reach their respective intensity peak on Friday night and valley on Tuesday morning, the result of a hyper-synchronised society. Next, heartbeats are computed for city neighbourhood 'tiles', a division of space within the city based on the distance to Metro and other public transport stations. We find that heartbeats are spatially heterogeneous with some diffusion, so that nearby tiles have similar heartbeats. Tiles are then clustered based on the shape of their heartbeat, e.g., tiles within groups suffer peaks and valleys of crime or crashes at similar times during the week. The clusters found are similar to those based on economic activities. This enables us to anticipate temporal traces of crime and crashes based on local amenities.

Impact of an unsanctioned safe consumption site on criminal activity, 2010-2019.

BACKGROUND: Health and social impacts of safe consumption sites (SCS) are well described in multiple countries. One argument used by those opposed to SCS in the US is that findings from other countries are not relevant to the US context. We examined whether an unsanctioned SCS operating in the US affected local crime rates. METHODS: Controlled interrupted time series (ITS) analysis of police incident reports for five years before and five years after SCS opening, comparing one intervention and two control areas in one city. RESULTS: Narcotic/drug incidents declined across the pre- and post-intervention periods in the intervention area and remained constant in both control areas, preventing an ITS analysis but suggesting no negative impact. On average, incident reports relating to assault, burglary, larceny theft, and robbery in the post-intervention period steadily decreased at a similar rate within both the Intervention area and Control area 1. However the change in rate of decline post-intervention was statistically significantly greater in the Intervention area compared to Control area 1 (difference in slope -0.007 SDs, 95 % CI: -0.013, -0.002; p = 0.01). The Intervention area had a statistically significant decline in crime over the post-intervention period compared to Control area 2 (difference in slope -0.023 SDs, 95 % CI: -0.03, -0.01; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Documented criminal activity decreased rather than increased in the area around an unsanctioned SCS located in the US in the five years following SCS opening.

Victims, offenders and victim-offender overlaps of knife crime: A social network analysis approach using police records.

Knife crime is a source of concern for the police in England and Wales, however little published research exists on this crime type. Who are the offenders who use knives to commit crime, when and why? Who are their victims, and is there a victim-offender overlap? What is the social network formation for people who are exposed to knife crime? Using a multidimensional approach, our aim is to answer these questions about one of England and Wales' largest jurisdictions: Thames Valley. We first provide a state-of-the-art narrative review of the knife crime literature, followed by an analysis of population-level data on central tendency and dispersion of knife crimes reported to the police (2015-2019), on offences, offenders, victims, victim-offender overlaps and gang-related assaults. Social network analysis was used to explore the formations of offender-victim networks. Our findings show that knife crime represents a small proportion of crime (1.86%) and is associated largely with violence offenses. 16-34 year-old white males are at greatest risk of being the victims, offenders or victim-offenders of knife crime, with similar relative risks between these three categories. Both knife offenders and victims are likely to have a criminal record. Knife crimes are usually not gang-related (less than 20%), and experienced mostly between strangers, with the altercation often a non-retaliatory 'one-off event'. Even gang-related knife crimes do not follow 'tit-for-tat' relationships-except when the individuals involved have extensive offending histories and then are likely to retaliate instantaneously. We conclude that while rare, an incident of knife crime remains predicable, as a substantial ratio of offenders and victims of future knife crime can be found in police records. Prevention strategies should not be focused on gang-related criminals, but on either prolific violent offenders or repeat victims who are known to the police-and therefore more susceptible to knife crime exposure.

On the future of the individual longitudinal age-crime curve.

BACKGROUND: This article serves as our memorial for the outstanding contribution of Rolf Loeber to developmental criminology. His salient paper on the future of the study of the age-crime curve (2012) is the focal point. AIMS: Follow some research trails that Rolf Loeber proposed in his 2012 paper. METHODS: Recent data on official offending from the Montréal Two Samples Four Generations Cross-sectional and Longitudinal Studies (MTSFGCLS) are analysed. The data were gathered for two generations of juvenile court males; five birth cohorts born around 1960 and followed from age 8 to 61, and five birth cohorts born around 1980, males and females traced from age 12 to 45. The age-crime curves are presented for the total prevalence. Epidemiological data are displayed for career descriptors: number of years active in offending, frequency, variety, onset, offset and duration. RESULTS: The age-crime curves of the two generations display the habitual shape reported in the literature. The epidemiological data shows that the population sample has a much lower curve in comparison to the court sample; this sort of difference is also observed between females and males. CONCLUSION: The difference between the two generations in the age-crime curves are interpreted in light of three evolutions in Québec from 1960 to 2000: (a) a radical change in the delinquency law, social and criminal justice policies, and treatment for juvenile delinquents; (b) a reduction of the juvenile and adult crime rates; (c) a significant increase in the wellbeing of the population on education, health and welfare services.

The contribution of methamphetamine use to crime: Evidence from Australian longitudinal data.

BACKGROUND: To quantify the extent to which methamphetamine use is associated with increases in crime net of any premorbid risk of criminality among people who use the drug. METHODS: Four one-month data panels from 469 participants dependent on methamphetamine were drawn from the MATES cohort (N = 501). Odds ratios for within-person effects were extracted from a random intercept logistic regression model for crime during periods of methamphetamine use compared to no use. Effects were adjusted for time-varying measures of age, other substance use, and socio-economic disadvantage (income, unemployment and unstable accommodation). Involvement in crime (property crime, drug dealing, fraud, violent crime) and days of methamphetamine in the past month were assessed using the Opiate Treatment Index. RESULTS: Crime was more likely during months when participants used methamphetamine compared to when they did not (OR 13.2 95% CI 8.5-20.6; AOR 4.7 95% CI 2.8-8.0), this reflecting more property crime (OR 10.6 95% CI 6.3-18.0; AOR 5.5 95% CI 2.8-10.8), violent crime (OR 8.2 95% CI 4.2-15.9; AOR 3.4 95% CI 1.5-8.0), fraud (OR 3.4, 95% CI 2.0-5.8; AOR 1.7 95% CI 0.8-3.3) and dealing drugs (OR 18.2 95% CI 10.2-32.5; AOR 5.9 95% CI 3.0-11.9), although the adjusted relationship for fraud was not significant. Effects were dose related. CONCLUSIONS: The use of methamphetamine was associated with significant increases in crime beyond premorbid risk for criminality. Crime is a likely social consequence of methamphetamine use and efforts are needed to reduce this impact.

Drug offenses in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area: Trends for 2016-2018.

In Japan over the past few years, approximately 13,000 individuals were arrested for drug offenses each year. It is useful to know the trends in drug offenses, in order to devise the most effective countermeasures and addiction treatment programs. Herein, we have revealed the trends in drug offenses in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area. This report was researched the number of individuals arrested for drug offenses in Tokyo during the 3-year study period 2016-2018. The drugs are classified into the six categories: stimulants, narcotics, psychoactive drugs, opium, cannabis, and designated substances. We also calculated the percentages of individuals arrested for various drug offenses based on these six categories. Approximately 86% of the arrests for drug offenses in Tokyo during the 3-year period were for stimulants or cannabis. A higher percentage of individuals were arrested for stimulants, but the percentage of individuals arrested for cannabis increased each year. Given the percentage of individuals arrested for designated substances or narcotics, preventive measures for drug offenses involving stimulants and cannabis should be promptly implemented. Further campaigns to prevent drug offenses and public lectures are also needed. Public education must be provided to prevent drug offenses involving designated substances and narcotics.

Associations between selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and violent crime in adolescents, young, and older adults - a Swedish register-based study.

This study identified individuals ever dispensed a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) aged 15-60 years during 2006-2013, using Swedish national registers. The outcome was violent crime conviction. The main statistical analyses assessed risks of violent crime during periods on compared to off SSRI treatment within individuals. Further analyses investigated risk over time in relation to treatment initiation and discontinuation. The study identified 785,337 individuals (64.2% female), experiencing 32,203 violent crimes in 5,707,293 person-years. Between-individual analyses found statistically significantly elevated Hazard Ratios (HRs) overall (HR = 1.10), and in 15-24 and 25-34 year-olds (HR = 1.19 and 1.16), but non-significant HRs in 35-44 and 45-60-year-olds (HR = 1.02 and 1.04). In within-individual analyses, where 2.6% of SSRI users were informative, hazards were elevated overall (HR = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.19, 1.34), and across age groups (HR of 1.35 [95% CI = 1.19, 1.54] in 25-34-year-olds to 1.15 [95% CI = 0.99, 1.33] in 35-44-year-olds). In the overall cohort, the within-individual HRs were significantly elevated throughout treatment (HRs of 1.24 to 1.35) and for up to 12 weeks post-discontinuation (HRs of 1.37 and 1.20). While questions on causality remain, these results indicate that there may be an increased risk of violent crime during SSRI treatment in a small group of individuals. It may persist throughout medicated periods, across age groups, and after treatment discontinuation. Further confirmation is needed from studies with different designs, and clinical focus should be on high-risk individuals, as a majority of SSRI-users (around 97% in our cohort) will not commit violent crimes.

The heterogeneous effect of marijuana decriminalization policy on arrest rates in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 2009-2018.

BACKGROUND: Marijuana decriminalization holds potential to reduce health inequities. However, limited attention has focused on assessing the impact of decriminalization policies across different populations. This study aims to determine the differential effect of a marijuana decriminalization policy change in Philadelphia, PA on marijuana arrests by demographic characteristics. METHODS: Using a comparative interrupted time series design, we assessed whether the onset of marijuana decriminalization in Philadelphia County was associated with reduction in arrests rates from 2009 to 2018 compared to Dauphin County. Stratified models were used to describe the differential impact of decriminalization across different demographic populations. RESULTS: Compared to Dauphin, the mean arrest rate for all marijuana-related crimes in Philadelphia declined by 19.9 per 100,000 residents (34.9% reduction), 17.1 per 100,000 residents (43.1% reduction) for possession, and 2.8 per 100,000 resident (15.9% reduction) for sales/manufacturing. Arrest rates also differed by demographic characteristics post-decriminalization. Notably, African Americans had a greater absolute/relative reduction in possession-based arrests than Whites. However, relative reductions for sales/manufacturing-based arrests was nearly 3 times lower for African Americans. Males had greater absolute/relative reduction for possession-based arrests, but lower relative reduction for sales/manufacturing-based arrests compared to females. There were no substantial absolute differences by age; however, youths (vs. adults) experienced higher relative reduction in arrest rates. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest an absolute/relative reduction for possession-based arrests post-decriminalization; however, relative disparities in sales/manufacturing-based arrests, specifically for African Americans, increased. More consideration towards the heterogeneous effect of marijuana decriminalization are needed given the unintended harmful effects of arrest on already vulnerable populations.

Interactions Between the Police and the Autistic Community in Australia: Experiences and Perspectives of Autistic Adults and Parents/Carers.

This study aimed to describe the experiences of autistic people who had interacted with police in Australia in the previous 5 years. Fifty autistic adults and 61 parent/carers completed a questionnaire and 30 participants took part in an interview. Participants were most commonly interacting with police in the context of seeking assistance or as victims of crime. Autistic adults were largely unsatisfied with their interactions and reluctant to disclose their autism. Parent/carers reported significantly higher satisfaction than autistic adults and incidents involving children were rated more highly than those involving adults. Suggestions for improved interactions included increased autism awareness amongst police and use of appropriate accommodations. Areas for future research in relation to the evaluation of police training is discussed.